# Fire: sub-pixel fire location from existing Himawari data

URL: https://foundtofixed.com/fire

Fire turns satellites already watching Australia into fire locations an agency can act on. It needs no new hardware and no launch.

Fire is built in stages. Each stage gives fire operators a better product in
its own right. Together, the stages measure how far existing satellites can be
pushed, and what only a sovereign Australian satellite can add.

## Background

Australia's national hotspot product, DEA Hotspots, places Himawari detections
to within ±2 km and publishes them about 20 minutes after observation.
Geoscience Australia states the product is not accurate enough for
time-critical fire detection and location.

The same error shows up overseas. A March 2026 study in *Remote Sensing* found
about 12% of fire detections from the US GOES satellites misaligned with
matching VIIRS detections, with offsets of several kilometres.

## Requirement

Within minutes of ignition, a fire agency needs to know where the fire is, how
hot it is, and where it is heading. Location comes first. Every other decision
depends on it.

## Why pixel size matters

A geostationary weather satellite sees Australia in pixels about 2 km across.
A new fire fills a small fraction of one pixel, so its position inside that
pixel is unknown, and the satellite's viewing angle over terrain shifts it
further.

The 2018 Camp Fire shows the effect. Simulated at four pixel sizes, the same
fire covers:

- 8,417 pixels at 45 m
- 2,110 pixels at 90 m
- 144 pixels at 375 m
- 6 pixels at 2.2 km

![The head of the 2018 Camp Fire at 08:00, simulated at four pixel sizes. At 45 m, 8,417 pixels show fire. At 90 m, 2,110 do, at 375 m, 144, and at 2.2 km, 6.](https://foundtofixed.com/assets/fire/camp-fire-0800-four-resolutions.webp)

*Simulated: the head of the 2018 Camp Fire in California at 08:00, six
kilometres across. At 2.2 km, the scale of a geostationary fire band, six
pixels show fire. Simulation by Janis Lesinskis. Background imagery: USDA
NAIP.*

At 09:00, the GOES-16 satellite saw the fire in about 20 pixels.

![GOES-16 Band 7 over the Camp Fire at 07:02, 07:32, 08:02, and 09:02: the real pixels in the top row, the simulation of the same cells below, with the mapped fire perimeter outlined.](https://foundtofixed.com/assets/fire/camp-fire-goes16-band7-real-vs-simulated.webp)

*GOES-16 Band 7 at 3.9 µm over the Camp Fire: real pixels above, the
simulation of the same cells below, and the mapped perimeter outlined. At
09:00, about 20 GOES-16 pixels show the fire. Locating it inside them is the
problem Fire works on. Real data: NOAA GOES-16. Simulation: Janis
Lesinskis.*

## Our approach

Himawari-8 and 9, operated by the Japan Meteorological Agency, carry the
Advanced Himawari Imager. It uses the same fire channels as the GOES imager:
Band 7 at 3.9 µm, where a small fire shows first, and Band 14 at 11.2 µm. Both
are 2 km channels.

Fire processes that data on the ground. It corrects each detection for
terrain, and for the way the sensor spreads a point of heat across neighbouring
pixels, using Himawari's own scan geometry. Over high terrain, uncorrected
parallax can misplace a fire on GOES by 5 km or more.

The result is fire location at improved resolution from data agencies already
receive. The satellite, its ground segment, and its data distribution stay as
they are.

## Staged program

Each stage delivers a working product and produces the evidence for the next.

### Stage 1a: corrected fire location from Band 7 (available now)

A data pipeline that corrects Himawari Band 7 fire detections for terrain and
sensor blur. Found To Fixed owns and operates the pipeline on sovereign compute
and licenses the output to the customer. Agencies get better fire locations in
their first season, from a satellite they already rely on.

### Stage 1b: multispectral processing (next)

Up to three more bands, starting with Bands 14 and 11. Location and temperature
accuracy improve, and false alarms fall.

### Stages 2 to 4: a sovereign fire satellite (future)

Stage 1 measures how far software can take existing satellites. What software
cannot correct, 2 km pixels and reliance on a satellite Australia does not
operate, defines the requirement for an Australian mission.

- Stage 2: preliminary design of a satellite mission for better revisit and
  geolocation
- Stage 3: critical design and planning, including component sourcing,
  funding, and partners
- Stage 4: build, launch, and operation of a fire data service from orbit

Design gates sit between mission stages: preliminary design, critical design,
and design locked. Funders see measured Stage 1 results before any hardware
decision.

One shape that mission could take is set out in our proposal for
[building sovereign Earth observation capabilities for Australia](https://foundtofixed.com/proposals/sovereign-eo-for-australia):
a constellation that can look at any part of Australia at any time.

## Validation

Fire is tested on the Himawari-8 archive for the 2019-20 Australian fire
season, against VIIRS at 375 m and Landsat at 30 m. Results report geolocation
error in metres, detection rate, false alarm rate, a combined accuracy score
(F1), and the time from observation to output.

## Data sovereignty

Jurisdiction requirements for acquisition, transmission, storage, processing,
and insights are set before any data moves. Each customer decides whether one
instance serves all jurisdictions or each jurisdiction holds its own.

## Operation

Found To Fixed runs the pipeline, including compute, monitoring, and the time
from observation to output. Availability targets come from what agencies need
during an event.

## Safety position

Public warnings come only from the responsible fire agency. Fire outputs reach
the public through that agency, carry a stated confidence, and never contradict
an official warning.

## Scope exclusions

- Building AI or machine learning models (Fire supplies labelled data for
  them)
- Issuing public warnings
- Fire spread prediction in Stage 1a
- Any change to the satellite, its ground segment, or data distribution

## Team

Janis Lesinskis leads the science. He spent four years on fire detection at
Fireball, then worked on UC Berkeley's FUEGO wildfire detection project at the
Space Sciences Laboratory. The Fire method builds on his GOES work.

## Contact

Tell us where fire data falls short today. [Start a conversation](contact)